Alcamo, J., D. van Vuuren, C. Ringler, W. Cramer, T. Masui, J. Alder, and K. Schulze. 2005. Changes in nature’s balance sheet: Model-based estimates of future worldwide ecosystem services. Ecology and Society 10(2):19. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol

2.4.3.3 INTEGRATIVE METHODS AND MODELS: Analytic methods - Scenario analysis Behind the imaginatively sketched story lines of most scenarios (1.4.3.1) lies a formal analytic process by which scenarios are created, described, compared, and evaluated. This begins with projections for push scenarios or backcasting for pull scenarios (see 1.4.3.1), based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships, and incorporating simulation models of long-term trends and major driving forces. The Reading illustrates this analytic process in the creation of four alternative scenarios for the demand for ecosystem services used in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA). The scenarios variously emphasize global trade or technology and diversified gated communities or ecosystem development.

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